Understanding A Market

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The ways that bookmakers frame their betting markets has drastically changed over the last 20-30 years. Before the advent of the internet you would find a lot of variations in betting markets from bookmaker to bookmaker and one could bet strategically across numerous different bookmakers on track as each bookmaker had differing opinions about the chances of winning for each horse therefore offering differing odds to each other in a lot of circumstances. With the proliferation of information available and the large amount of bookmakers offering odds over the internet bookmakers mostly just copy each other and then manage the risk based on weight of money and market moves accordingly. Long gone are the days of leviathan bookmakers like Mark Read who would form an opinion on a race and set a book to take on certain runners to win accordingly on those runners through forming an opinion certain runners just cant win and hence offering the best odds available about those runners whilst keeping the real seen winning chances safe in the market. Bookmakers these days frame initial opening market to 140-160% sometimes even larger in terms of percentages making it just about impossible to get good value for money but as each race comes closer to start time markets tighten up as odds generally get longer on each runner which in turn tightens up betting markets (lower percentages) as bookmakers compete with each other for market share of the more serious wagering dollar. 90% of turnover happens in the last 30 minutes before each race. By this time markets have tightened up to generally 110-118% but if you are betting on the exchanges then the markets are even tighter down to 101-103%. This is when it is the best time to bet, when the markets have tightened up and this is generally when we strike as we have the biggest advantage when the markets are tightest.

Framing your own betting markets is a very skilled trade that takes years and years to perfect. You need to have an excellent understanding of mathematics and a superior knowledge base of form analysis techniques to properly ascertain the true winning chance of each horse in a race. If you want to win long term betting on horse racing it is paramount that you either can frame your own markets for each race you decide to bet into or have access to a source that can frame a market accurately. We have been framing betting markets and doing detailed form analysis on Australian and International horse racing from across 10+ racing jurisdictions for varying lengths of time giving us a superior knowledge base of form which allows us to form the most accurate betting markets available in the market place. Time and time again we see our betting intelligence formed from the markets we frame cause significant moves in bookmakers betting markets as they adjust their prices to try and counter the weight of money our members wager on what we determine as horses that are being bet at odds greater than their true seen winning chance. We frame our own markets for this exact reason, to give our members an edge over bookmakers and the rest of the betting public alike so they can bet confidently knowing long term the edge we provide increases their chance of winning.

The easiest and simplest analogy to use explaining this is by using what we call the “toss of a coin” analogy or the “two horse race” analogy. It is easiest to understand and explain and it keeps things relatively simple. With a coin it can either be “Heads” or “Tails” with both having a 50% chance of happening. This means when you divide the whole chance of any outcome in an event happening (100%) by the true chance of any one particular outcome (eg “Heads” @ 50%) it will give you the true odds for that outcome (100% / 50% = 2.00), so the odds on the outcome of a coin toss being heads should be 2.00, same for tails 2.00. When a bookmaker frames a market on a “two horse race” eg a sporting event between two teams where they apply a points start to one team to make it seem like both teams have an equal chance of winning (eg Rugby League match Panthers vs Rooster, Roosters may be given +6.5pts head start in head to head market) in this instance bookmakers will offer odds of 1.90 about each team when they should be offering 2.00 about each team if they truly both have then the same chance of winning, by offering odds of 1.90 about both teams they give themselves a natural advantage in the market. If one person bets $100 on Panthers and another person bets $100 on Roosters then one person will make $90 profit whilst the other person will lose $100 and therefore the bookmaker makes a $10 profit on the total $200 bet by both persons. This equates to a 5% market advantage. Now if we divide 100% / 1.90 = 52.5% approximately, 2 lots of 52.5% is 105% therefore equalling the 5% market advantage the bookmakers have by offering odds of 1.90 about both “Heads” and “Tails” or Panthers and Roosters. Our job in a horse racing event where there is always more than 2 runners or 2 outcomes is to work out what we feel is the true winning chance of each horse and then convert that percentage chance to odds by dividing 100% / the percent chance of winning for each horse to set a market or the true odds we feel each horse should be. If we think Horse #1 has a 25% chance of winning then its true odds should be 4.00 (100% / 25% = 4.00). Once we have done that for every runner in a race we then compare the odds or market we have framed vs the bookmakers odds being offered to see if their is any discrepancies in their market vs the market we have framed. Where we find a discrepancy in our favour (bookmaker offered odds being higher than the odds we have framed about a horse) then that horse becomes a potential good betting angle. To take this analogy further. In terms of a Value Longshot we might identify Horse A as a 20% chance of winning or have its odds as 5.00 in our market but the bookmaker is offering odds of 11.00 (remembering that one of the qualifying factors for a Value Longshot is odds on offer being greater than 10.00) then that horse will qualify as a Value Longshot selection. In terms of a Win Banker Bet and remembering that Win Banker Bet selections are centred around a predicted high percentage chance of winning (generally greater than 30% or predicted odds of 3.30), we might identify Horse A as having a 40% chance of winning or have its odds as 2.50 in our market but the bookmaker is offering odds of 4.00 then that horse will qualify as a Win Banker Bet selection. All of these examples highlight the most important factor to consider when trying to win long term. We need to have an advantage in any betting market vs the bookmaker before we will wager. It is absolutely crucial to long term profitability!

Once we have identified any advantage we have in a betting market framed by bookmakers we then ascertain how much of an advantage we have in terms of a percentage overlay vs our general confidence to then identify where that potential bet / tip fits into our different services. Where we have a high confidence of a winning outcome on a Win Bet and the percentage overlay is large enough we offer these tips as part of our Win Banker Bet service. When we identify a horse being bet at 10.00 or greater at the time of identification and the overlay is greater than generally 30% we will offer these tips as part of our Value Longshot service. Tips offered via our Live Trader service encapsulate both of the above outlined scenarios along with other tips that fall outside the price range and confidence levels of the those mentioned above but still have a distinct percentage overlay and good confidence chance of winning.

The tools and form analysis techniques we use in the process of framing a market have come from decades of experience. It is the expertise we have developed via these tools and techniques that sets up apart from other form analysts offering services in the market place.

We take into account a myriad of factors when doing form

• Form analysis of a horses past performances via use of weights, margins & measures to ascertain the true merit of their past performances
• Analysis of the bloodlines of a horse to identify potentially what is the optimum distances and performance levels of each runner taking into account the general ability of the sire line and the performance and progeny record of the distaff / dam line back through the first 4 dams
• Track and weather idiosyncrasies associated to each particular race meeting to identify where potential advantages could happen.
• Analysis of video replays of trials, jump outs and races to identify hidden merit that can not be understood through traditional form analysis techniques, our ability to read and understand the true merit of a performance in video replays is a large part of how we gain an edge in betting markets.
• An emphasis on identifying hidden merit in performances to gain a distinct edge in identifying horses that have been under-estimated by the bookmakers or general betting public. 
• An emphasis on identifying fluked and flattered performances which allows us to identify when particular horses' abilities have been over-estimated by the bookmakers or general betting public.